The temperature is predicted to be high this week with the peak of the heat likely to be on Friday. Please be aware of the heat plan for England and follow guidelines here. This is important for both residential settings and people in their own homes who may need further support.

Please note the Heat Health Alert Level 3 and guidance below:

» Supporting vulnerable people before and during a heatwave: for care home managers and staff
» Supporting vulnerable people before and during a heatwave: for health and social care professionals

Heat Health Alert – Level 3 Heatwave Action

There is a 90 % probability of Heat-Health Alert criteria being met between 12am on Friday and 12am on Sunday in parts of England.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 9am if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force.

» Click here for the latest forecast details
» Click here keep up to date with the latest changes

The areas that are likely to be affected are:

Region Warning Level Risk Comments
East Midlands/EM Level 2 (Yellow) 70% Widely hot, occasionally very hot on Friday. Likely cloudier and fresher on Saturday with thundery showers. Timing for cooler air arriving uncertain.
East of England/EE Level 3 (Amber) 90% Widely hot or very hot on Friday. Perhaps cloudier and fresher on Saturday with thundery showers. Timing for cooler air arriving uncertain.
Southeast England/SEE Level 3 (Amber) 90% Widely hot or very hot on Friday. Somewhat cloudier and probably fresher on Saturday with thundery showers. Timing for cooler air arriving uncertain.
London/LON Level 3 (Amber) 90% Widely hot or very hot on Friday and perhaps for Saturday. Cloudier and fresher by Sunday with thundery showers. Timing for cooler air arriving uncertain.

General comments

There is high confidence for temperatures to rise significantly through the second half of this week, becoming hot or very hot in central and southern areas. The peak of the heat is expected on Friday, with daytime maxima likely to reach into the low to mid-30s of Celsius across large parts of central and southern England. Another warm night is expected in similar parts on Friday night before cooler and fresher conditions arrive during Saturday There remains uncertainty in regards to the speed of progression of cooler conditions arriving from the north and west over the weekend. A slower outcome may allow for the very warm or hot conditions to persist across far southern areas on Saturday, before a more definitive return to more seasonable temperatures for all regions of England by Sunday.

Organisations providing health and social care should be aware of the advice and guidance set out in the Heatwave Plan for England, as to the actions necessary before and during a Level 2 or Level 3 heatwave. Specific advice to be followed by health care professionals, and the managers and staff of residential and nursing homes in the event of an episode of heat is available from UK Health Security Agency’s website here.

The Heat-Health Alert Service is designed to help healthcare professionals manage during periods of hot weather. The service acts as an early warning system forewarning of periods of high temperatures, which may affect the health of the public. Heat-Health Alerts are sent to the Chief Executive of every Health Trust provider of NHS commissioned care, Local Authority and Social Care Organisation in England. If you would like to add a colleague to receive these alerts, or change your own email address, please click here.

Feel free to share this link within your organisation, or other health and social care administrations you think may benefit from this service. If you have questions or technical problems with the subscription service, please see the page subscriberhelp.govdelivery.com . All other enquiries can be directed to enquiries@metoffice.gov.uk.

The Heat-Health Alert Service operates in England from 1 June to 15 September each year, in association with UK Health Security Agency. This is the period when temperature thresholds are most likely to be reached. However, should thresholds for an alert be reached outside of this period, an extraordinary Heat-Health Alert will be issued and stakeholders are advised to take the usual public health actions.

To aid local planning, listed below are the Local Resilience Forum (LRFs) matched against their regions.

NHS Region NSWWS Region Local Resilience Forum
East of England East of England Bedfordshire
Cambridgeshire
Essex
Hertfordshire
Norfolk
Suffolk
South South East England Sussex
Kent
Surrey
Thames Valley
Hampshire and Isle of Wight
London London London

 

Below is the predicted forecast for the upcoming month:

Forecast for Monday 13 June 2022 to Friday 17 June 2022
General Situation: High pressure ridge will extend across the UK during the week ahead, which will bring settled and fine weather for many. Temperatures will be rising daily, with most areas becoming warm or very warm, with potentially hot conditions developing in the south and southeast of England on Friday, which could exceed the heat health alert threshold. The peak of the heat is likely to be on Friday, with temperatures possibly reaching the low 30s in the southeast.

 

Forecast for Saturday 18 June 2022 to Monday 27 June 2022
General Situation: A cold front is likely to move south-eastwards on Saturday, which will introduce cooler and fresher conditions across the UK. A thundery breakdown is likely to occur ahead of the cold front on Saturday. However, the far southeast of England may hold onto the very warm or hot conditions a little longer, although there remains some uncertainty in the timing of the cold front clearance. Thereafter, a changeable weather pattern looks set to become established across the UK, with spells of rain or showers in the northwest, although most areas are likely to see some rain. Driest and sunniest conditions are likely to be in the south and southwest. Temperatures will range from near normal in the north, to warm in the south. Low risk of a thundery plume affecting the south at some point, which could temporarily bring very warm or hot conditions to the southeast, which may exceed the heat health alert threshold.

 

Forecast for Tuesday 28 June 2022 to Tuesday 12 July 2022
General Situation: High pressure probably becoming more prevalent during this period, which is likely to to be centred somewhere to the west or southwest of the UK. Drier overall, although there is likely to be spells of rain or showers, mainly in the northwest. Still a small risk of thundery outbreaks in the south. Temperatures are likely to near or above normal, with some very warm spells possible. However, temperatures are currently expected to remain below the heat health alert threshold.

 

Heat-Health Alert – Long-term planning to reduce risk from hot weather

Temperatures are not expected to reach Heat Health Alert thresholds until further notice.

Year-round planning is necessary so that longer term actions, such as those linked to spatial planning and housing, are taken to reduce the harm to health of significant hot conditions when they occur. Should thresholds for an alert be reached outside the summer season, an extraordinary heat-health alert will be issues, and stakeholders are advised to take the usual public health actions.

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